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Your Weekly Geopolitical Dispatch

Welcome to Your Weekly Geopolitical Dispatch, a collaboration between Meridian and Geopolitical Strategy, created exclusively for Meridian’s Corporate Council Members.

Each week, we provide a concise overview of the most significant geopolitical developments and their implications for business and global markets in a letter from Michael Feller, Chief Strategist, as well as the full text of the latest edition.

This briefing is produced in partnership with Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specializing in geopolitical risk, strategy, and corporate diplomacy. The insights featured here are drawn from Geopolitical Dispatch, Geopolitical Strategy’s daily intelligence report, modeled on the President’s Daily Brief and designed for senior decision-makers.

Meridian Corporate Council Members have the opportunity to access one month's complimentary access to Geopolitical Dispatch.

This Week in Geopolitics

Michael Feller, Chief Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy, Friday 7 March 2025.
 

The week in geopolitics has been dominated by the man in the White House, particularly tariffs aimed at Canada, Mexico and China, which have roiled markets, and the aftermath of the televised evisceration of Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky, which has roiled Europe and other US allies.

The connecting thread is President Trump's America First logic, on full display in a 100-minute address to both houses of Congress Tuesday. Not only doubling down on his policies on trade and the war in Ukraine, Trump also vowed to "get" Greenland and "take back" the Panama Canal.

Yet, while such threats, to quote the president, make for "great television", they don't make for good strategy. Beyond the military and political costs of seizing these territories – if a negotiated purchase cannot be made – the US is trashing an 80-year reputation for relatively benign hegemony. And while this may not matter to voters in the rural heartland or rust-belt cities, it matters greatly to not just world order but the underpinnings of US power and prosperity. 

Far from being ripped off, as MAGA enthusiasts believe, the international system, largely shaped in America's image, has given the US unparalleled purchasing power through the role of its dollar (with the current trade imbalance a side-effect of consumer demand exceeding domestic supply) and, until recently, unparalleled control of global shipping lanes, maritime security and the rules of globalisation (with unwise military deployments a side-effect of where this power has gone to previous administrations’ heads).

Most weeks see a compilation of events that are, for the most part, only remarkable insofar as they lead to something else. Yet in Trump's implementation of 25% tariffs (followed by a quick pause on automotive components) and in his tear-down of Zelensky (followed by a halt on military aid and, more importantly, intelligence), we have seen genuinely historic changes in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

It'll take years to unpack the causes and consequences, but seen from the hindsight of a week, we can draw the following conclusions: 1) US policy, while always made in US interests, is now being made without consideration for allied interests (which Australia should note); 2) US friends, while always temporary and disposable, are now being forced to hedge their bets (and, in the case of Germany and France, are openly talking about it); and 3) US markets, for the first time in living memory, are the epicentre of sovereign risk (as opposed to just financial risk, as in 2008). Several weeks ago, we advised clients to consider not only ‘China+1’ strategies in supply chains and investments but ‘US+1’ strategies too. And with Trump’s erratic policies, supported by half the US electorate, can you afford not to?

To round things out, we’re also watching a revival of tensions in the Balkans, plus efforts in Venezuela to hit back at Trump's rescinding of Chevron’s oil license through threats against ExxonMobil's operations in neighbouring Guyana. We're also watching signs of instability (and Russian meddling) in Guinea-Bissau, the increasingly brazen behaviour of Rwanda in Congo, and tensions along the Afghan-Pakistan border. Elsewhere, Myanmar's civil war continues (again with Russian meddling), a Gaza proposal from the Arab League has fallen flat (amid reports the US is now backchanneling Hamas), and Taiwan's chipmaking giant TSMC has pledged to invest $100 billion in the US (albeit possibly at risk of Taipei's chief security trump card). We expect some of these to make headlines next week.

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Today's Dispatch - War of the American Succession

Friday 7 March

The five things you need to know today:

  • FRANCE. BRITAIN. The battle is on for the next leader of the free world.

  • ROMANIA. An alleged coup plot thickens.

  • MEXICO. CANADA. Trump shows again this has nothing to do with trade.

  • PAKISTAN. Closer cooperation with Washington doesn't count for much.

  • SOUTH SUDAN. Threats of a civil war as the president goes after his deputy.

 
 
 

FRANCE. BRITAIN. Entre nous 

The battle is on for the next leader of the free world.

The EU agreed to new defence plans Thursday, while Emmanuel Macron said Moscow’s comparisons between him and Napoleon were "pique". Ireland said it would "do anything" to help UK-EU ties after London held more talks on Ukraine.

INTELLIGENCE. Macron and Keir Starmer are stepping up but will need to take care not to step on each other's toes. The two are working together on a package for Ukraine, but behind this lies a contest to see who can lead European defence in a post-NATO world (Trump said Thursday if members "don't pay" the US won't defend them). Germany and, to a lesser extent, Poland also harbour ambitions but will likely swing behind France and Britain, respectively.

FOR BUSINESS. The UK and France have been allies since 1904 but were reliable enemies beforehand. Differing visions of leadership could revive historic tensions, as will the ongoing contest for who will take Europe's economic crown, but the competition will be healthy for a region only waking from a post-1989 slumber. Paris has the benefit of being in the EU, but London has the benefit of being outside it. And Starmer, unlike Macron, controls his parliament.

 
 
 
 

ROMANIA. High stakes

An alleged coup plot thickens.

Romania detained six on charges of plotting to overthrow the state and raided the home of a 101-year-old ex-general linked to a group called the "Vlad the Impaler Command”. Russia's military attachĂ© was declared persona non grata.

INTELLIGENCE. The moves come alongside the upholding of preventative measures against presidential frontrunner

Calin Georgescu, a pro-Kremlin populist brought to global prominence during JD Vance's Munich Security Conference address. With several similarities to Germany’s prosecution of the hard-right Alternative fur Deutschland and the fringe ReichsbĂŒrger movement (five of whose members were jailed yesterday), expect more such MAGA defence.

FOR BUSINESS. The unfolding Georgescu saga, which will give overseas spectators plenty of vampire memes to go with their conspiracy theories, is fast becoming the organising principle of Romanian politics, which would otherwise have expected to enter 2025 enjoying the fruits of its Schengen Area accession and newfound relevance as a NATO bulwark on the Black Sea. Yet in the world of a second Trump term, it is now on the frontlines of the culture wars too.

 
 
 
 

MEXICO. CANADA. Recall of duties

Trump shows again this has nothing to do with trade.

Stocks fell again despite Donald Trump saying extra levies would not be charged on USMCA-compliant Mexican goods until 2 April after an "excellent and respectful" call with Claudia Sheinbaum. The ruling was later applied to Canada too.

INTELLIGENCE. Around 50% of Mexico's US exports are USMCA-compliant, versus 38% for Canada, which seems to only have been included in the pause after the intervention of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick (who may or may not be freelancing in his blunting of the president's decrees). Either way, it indicates a policy less about trade, or even fentanyl, and more about personality. Scott Bessent added to this theory by calling Justin Trudeau a “numbskull”.

FOR BUSINESS. The politics at least cuts both ways, insofar as Trudeau's Liberal Party have now been pushed to the top of pre-election polling while Trump's ratings in and outside the US are falling (the irony for Trudeau is he now might have been in contention for a fourth term if he hadn't already quit). This, like the stock market and the courts, will act as a break on any future US tariff moves, but equally, it makes Trump's policies all the more capricious.

 
 
 
 

PAKISTAN. Thanks, but no thanks

Closer cooperation with Washington doesn’t count for much.

Pakistan hailed ties with the US after the arrest of Mohammad Sharifullah, blamed for killing 170 Afghans and 13 US soldiers at the Kabul airport in 2021. Media said the US was considering an entry ban on Afghan and Pakistani citizens.

INTELLIGENCE. Donald Trump singled out Pakistan during his congressional address Tuesday, but the entry ban will only deepen mistrust and Islamabad’s drift towards China and the Gulf for economic and strategic support. Such moves will be welcomed in India, but the same impetus to a “Muslim travel ban” – as floated in Trump’s first administration – could equally apply to anyone. High Indian migration is a contentious topic for many Republicans.

FOR BUSINESS. The ban, if implemented, could reopen the fault line between supporters of H-1B visas, like Elon Musk, and opponents, like Steve Bannon. This fissure in the MAGA movement, tied up in conspiracies about “technocracy” and the “replacement” of whites, may once have been fringe but now reaches the centre of US power. Citizens from Yemen, Libya, Somalia, Syria and residents of Gaza are also believed to be listed for entry restrictions.

 
 
 
 

SOUTH SUDAN. Factions on the ground

Threats of a civil war as the president goes after his deputy.

Key allies of First Vice President Riek Machar were arrested, and Machar's residence was surrounded, in moves analysts said could risk a return to civil war. Militias linked to Machar's ethnic group last month clashed with government soldiers.

INTELLIGENCE. Machar and President Salva Kiir are from different tribes and different factions of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement. They fought on opposite sides in the 2013-18 civil war, which killed 400,000, and have been caught to varying degrees by the current civil war in Sudan, where SPLM factions are also on opposing sides. Kiir recently visited Abu Dhabi, a major investor in South Sudan and the key backer of Sudan’s rebel Rapid Support Forces.

FOR BUSINESS. The UAE and other external players may not be directly involved in recent events but will have an interest in how they unfold. Similarly, Sudan, which controls the Red Sea pipeline from which South Sudan’s oil flows (when it’s operating), will have an interest in ensuring the RSF doesn’t use the south as strategic depth from which to launch future assaults. With help from Russia and Iran, Sudan’s army has recently made inroads against the rebels.

 

 

  

About Geopolitical Dispatch

"The difference between reading the news and knowing what it means"

Every morning, before markets open, business leaders, investors, and policymakers wake up to a world in motion. Stock markets shift. Energy prices fluctuate. Governments make decisions that shape economies. In this environment, geopolitical awareness is not optional—it is essential.

Geopolitical Dispatch provides clear, concise intelligence on the five most important geopolitical developments each day, focusing on what matters for business, finance, and global stability. Modeled on the U.S. President’s Daily Brief, it is designed to help decision-makers see what’s coming, assess the risks, and act with confidence.

Written by former diplomats, Geopolitical Dispatch is Geopolitical Strategy's client briefing is trusted by over 6,000 CEOs, hedge fund managers, and policymakers worldwide. It is built for those who need timely, actionable insights without the noise, speculation, or partisanship of traditional news. 

EXCLUSIVE ACCESS FOR MERIDIAN CORPORATE COUNCIL MEMBERS

Through a partnership between Meridian and Geopolitical Strategy, you are entitled to a one month complimentary subscription to Geopolitical Dispatch's daily briefings.

This is not a public offer and designed for senior professionals who require systemic, high-quality understanding of geopolitical risk. To activate your access, click the button below.

Get Your One Month Free Trial